The Real Effects of Climate Change

Every day, Linber Anej fights a losing battle at his home in the Marshall Islands, a tiny nation in the Pacific Ocean. Together with several of his neighbors, Anej wades into the water at low tide to gather chunks of concrete and metal scraps in order to rebuild a seawall, a barrier designed to prevent flooding. 

But the makeshift wall is no match for the sea. Waves regularly wash into Anej’s house and the surrounding streets, filling them with salt water and raw sewage. 

“I feel like we’re living under­water,” says Anej.

It may not be long before the Marshall Islands are literally underwater, most scientists agree. That’s because of climate change, a long-term shift in Earth’s climate that’s causing temperatures to rise. Already, the warming trend has led to side effects, such as flooding from rising seas, severe drought, and more destructive weather in general. 

In January, researchers reported that 2015 was the hottest year worldwide since record keeping began in the 19th century (topping 2014, which previously held the record). The vast majority of scientists say that human activities are to blame. 

Now, the world has finally started to address the issue after many years of delays. In December, the United States and 194 other nations agreed to a landmark deal (see “The Paris Climate Pact,” below) meant to prevent the worst effects of climate change from happening. 

The agreement is an important step. Yet experts say that protecting the planet remains a challenge.

How did we get into this situation? Scientists say the planet is heating up because of a rise in greenhouse gases. These invisible gases let sunlight through but also trap heat in the atmosphere and make Earth warmer, acting much like the glass panes in a greenhouse. (Their influence on Earth’s temperature is known as the greenhouse effect.)    

Some greenhouse gases occur naturally in the atmosphere; others are produced by human actions. For example, the burning of fossil fuels like oil and coal—mostly from cars and power plants—creates carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas. There are other sources too. For instance, cows raised for meat or dairy production emit methane during digestion.

The higher the concentration of greenhouse gases, the warmer the planet gets. Today, scientists say, the gases are building up to an alarming degree. The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is up 41 percent since the Industrial Revolution in the early 19th century and could double in a few decades. 

Already, the planet has warmed 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since the 1800s. That may not sound like much, but 97 percent of climate scientists say the problem is urgent, according to a report by the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the world’s largest scientific organization. 

“The evidence is overwhelming: Levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are rising,” the report states. “Temperatures are going up. Ice sheets are melting. Sea level is rising. The patterns of rainfall and drought are changing. Heat waves are getting worse.”

One of the most worrisome effects of climate change may be the melting of much of Earth’s ice in the polar regions. That is a key part of what’s creating higher sea levels. Scientists predict that the levels will rise one to four feet across the globe by the end of this century, but the change is happening even faster in the Marshall Islands, Anej’s home. 

Most of the nation’s 1,000 or so islands, located in the North Pacific near the equator, are less than six feet above sea level—and few are more than a mile wide.

“We see the damage [from climate change] occurring now,” says Tony A. deBrum, the foreign minister of the Marshall Islands. “We’re trying to beat back the sea.”

In the capital, Majuro, waves have overtaken a cemetery, washing away rows of coffins and headstones. Farmers are struggling as salt water soaks their fields, killing crops.

If climate change causes sea levels to rise more, many of the islanders who today experience deluges of tidal flooding once every month or two could see their homes unfit for human habitation within decades.

The situation in the South Asian country of Bangladesh is perhaps even worse. By 2050, scientists predict, the sea could overtake 17 percent of the nation’s land, displacing about 18 million people in what is one of the world’s most turbulent regions. 

Bangladeshis have already started moving away from the lowest-lying villages in the river deltas of the Bay of Bengal (see map, below). Surveys indicate that as many as 1.5 million of the 5 million slum inhabitants in Dhaka, the capital, have moved there from villages near the Bay of Bengal.

“We need a regional and, better yet, a global solution,” says Tariq Karim, Bangladesh’s ambassador to India. “If we don’t get one . . . the Bangladeshi people will soon become the world’s problem.”

The impoverished African country of Mali suffers from an altogether different problem: not enough water. Climate change there has raised temperatures and sharply reduced rainfall, causing severe droughts. 

“We have a rainy season which went from a six-month duration to a month and a half in just a few years,” says Maïga Sina Damba, a former government minister. “Climate change is a daily life issue for us.”

With an annual per capita income of $660 last year, Malians don’t have the resources to adapt to their new environment. Most of the population depends on agriculture for survival, and the lack of rain has seriously threatened food supplies. Vital water sources, such as the Niger River, which supports 112 million people, are also drying up. 

Says Mali’s president, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita: “I saw with my own eyes the River Niger vanish into the sands, as the months went by.”

For the first time in a long time, however, there is good news about climate change. In Paris, France, at the end of last year, world leaders made significant progress by pledging to lower greenhouse gas emissions. 

How the U.S. will do its part remains unclear. Last summer, President Barack Obama introduced a new plan meant to reduce power plants’ carbon dioxide emissions dramatically by 2030. (The plants currently generate nearly 40 percent of all U.S. carbon dioxide emissions.) But the Supreme Court has temporarily blocked the measure after 27 states sued to stop it from taking effect. 

Still, the use of renewable energy sources—such as solar and wind—is on the rise. Clean energy made up the majority of new power added to U.S. grids last year, and the cost of installing it is dropping. (The price of solar panels, for example, has plunged 75 percent since 2008.) 

Solving climate change won’t be easy, but the Paris agreement proves that nations can work together to secure the planet’s future, as President Obama recently remarked. “I believe this moment can be a turning point,” he said. “We’ve shown that the world has both the will and the ability to take on this challenge.”

With reporting by The New York Times