Meet Your Competition

The staffers at the Henn-na Hotel near Nagasaki, Japan, are always friendly, start work on time, and never call in sick. But they aren’t ordinary ­employees—they’re robots. At the world’s first hotel staffed almost entirely by machines, humanlike robots chat with guests, carry customers’ luggage, and deliver room service. 

The hotel, which opened last summer, may sound like fun, but it’s no laughing matter for the people who weren’t hired because of the robots. And they’re about to get a lot of company. According to researchers at Oxford University in England, nearly half of all U.S. jobs—and 70 percent of low-skilled jobs—are at risk of being replaced by ­technology within the next 10 to 20 years. 

Worldwide, many hospitals are already using robots to run lab tests and help diagnose patients. Restaurants are relying on computers to take orders and prepare food. And in recent years, many bank tellers, tollbooth ­operators, cashiers, tax preparers, and travel agents have been replaced by machines.

With so much technology reporting for duty, what will happen to human workers? Historically, advances in technology have created more jobs than they eliminated. But recent developments—including driverless cars and robots that can read facial expressions—have some people worried that machines are becoming so sophisticated that huge numbers of humans will eventually be pushed out of the workforce. 

“Machines are learning to do human things that they never, ever could do before,” says Andrew McAfee, a scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

Still, most experts are confident that people won’t see all jobs going to robots. Even though technology will likely replace many low-skilled jobs (which are easier to automate), plenty of new positions will be created, they believe. However, technology writer Howard Rheingold says that the jobs created by machines in the coming years will likely require a lot of training—and in many cases, a ­college degree. 

“The jobs that the robots will leave for humans will be those that require thought and knowledge,” he told the Pew Research Center. “In other words, only the best-educated humans will [be able to] compete with machines.”

If machines are such a threat to jobs, why do companies use them? For starters, robots are able to ­perform certain tasks faster and more efficiently than humans. Machines also never get sick, don’t take time off, and don’t need to be paid. Often, it’s cheaper for ­businesses to use technology than to employ enough human workers to do the same jobs. 

The National Institutes of Health, for example, is using ­several robotic systems to run lab tests. A single robot can run 3 million tests every week. A person would need to work eight hours a day, seven days a week for 12 years to run that many tests.

According to Frank Levy, an economist at MIT, machines don’t have to do all the work of humans to eliminate their jobs, just enough of the necessary tasks. For instance, ATMs have cut down the need for bank tellers because they replaced a part of the tellers’ job, he explains.

And yet some job loss is good if it means saving people from dangerous situations. Experts say that sophisticated robots will soon serve as first responders following disasters, such as earthquakes and nuclear meltdowns, when it’s too risky to send in people. Robots might even be used in battle. Former U.S. Army General Robert Cone has predicted that robots could replace thousands of the branch’s soldiers within the next few years. That could save many lives.

Although several jobs are being taken over by robots, experts agree that technology can generate jobs too. The main difference is that the positions created by machines tend to require more skills and training than the ones that are eliminated.  

While technology has reduced the number of jobs in manufacturing and agriculture, for example, positions in other fields have skyrocketed. Today, tech companies like Google, Apple, and Yahoo! employ millions of workers. Plus, many people nationwide work as social media managers and app developers—just two of the many jobs produced by technological advancements that didn’t exist even a decade ago. As long as robots are part of the workforce, we’ll also need people to design, build, and maintain them.

In addition, technology creates jobs by boosting productivity and efficiency. When companies are able to make goods at a lower cost, they can lower their prices. That increases demand, which often leads to more hiring.

Since machines are set to play an even bigger role in employment in the coming years, experts say that job ­seekers will need to be well versed in technology. To make sure that kids today will be able to compete in the future job market, President Barack Obama has called for a $3 ­billion investment in STEM (science, technology, ­engineering, and math) education. 

But does preparing for the future mean studying only STEM? Not necessarily, say experts. While demand will continue to rise for people who can write computer code and build robots, many other types of jobs will be necessary too. For one thing, machines don’t understand ­emotion and are poor at problem solving, critical thinking, and ­creativity. Most robots aren’t yet adaptable or versatile. 

That means that a scientist developing robotics ­systems might have a safe job, but so would a salesperson, a ­teacher, or a plumber. Such professions require ­understanding ­people or working in unpredictable environments.

Ultimately, many experts maintain, machines are being designed to help humans and to make our jobs ­easier—not to replace us entirely. 

“Technology is not something to be afraid of—just the opposite,” says Ken Goldberg, a robotics expert at the University of California, Berkeley. “Robots are being designed to inspire and enhance humans, not eliminate us.”