Russia: Friend, Enemy, or Frenemy?

The United States and Russia don’t have much in common. The U.S. is the world’s oldest democracy, with a long history of defending the independence of other nations. Russia has an authoritarian government that suppresses its critics and recently invaded the neighboring nation of Ukraine. For most of the past century, the U.S. and Russia have teetered between mutual mistrust and planet-threatening nuclear confrontation.

Today, Russia stands accused of meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election by hacking into the emails of Democratic Party officials. Yet since taking office, President Donald Trump has seemed set on forgetting the past and becoming friends with Russia and its autocratic leader, Vladimir Putin. 

Trump has praised Putin on Twitter, calling him “highly respected” and “very smart.” Some of Trump’s other public statements have also pleased Russia. He has said, for example, that America’s commitment to defending its European allies from Russian aggression may not be set in stone.

Putin has returned the favor, describing Trump as “very talented” and arranging praise for him in Russia’s state-controlled media. In phone calls after Trump’s election, the two presidents set an ambitious agenda for cooperation. They discussed working together on terrorism, Syria’s civil war, the Arab-Israeli peace process, and the threat of nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea. 

Such talk of teamwork is an incredible turn of events. In recent years, the relationship between the U.S. and Russia had sunk so low that many experts feared any new misunderstanding could trigger an international crisis—or worse. 

Trump’s embrace of Putin could provide an opportunity for a “reset” of U.S.-Russia relations. But some experts say the countries’ interests are so at odds that it may be hard for the two strong-willed leaders to cooperate without eventually clashing. 

The United States and Russia do not have much in common. The U.S. is the world’s oldest democracy. It has a long history of defending the independence of other nations. Russia has an authoritarian government that clamps down on its critics. It recently invaded the neighboring nation of Ukraine. For most of the past ­century, the U.S. and Russia have teetered between mutual mistrust and planet-threatening nuclear ­confrontation.

Today, Russia stands accused of meddling in the 2016 U.S. presidential election by hacking into the emails of Democratic Party officials. Yet since taking office, President Donald Trump has seemed set on forgetting the past. He has talked of becoming friends with Russia and its autocratic leader, Vladimir Putin.

Trump has praised Putin on Twitter, calling him “highly respected” and “very smart.” Some of Trump’s other public statements have also pleased Russia. He has said, for example, that America’s commitment to defending its European allies from hostile acts by Russia may not be set in stone.

Putin has returned the favor, describing Trump as “very ­talented.” He also arranged praise for him in Russia’s state-controlled media. In phone calls after Trump’s election, the two presidents set an ambitious plan for cooperation. They discussed working together on terrorism, Syria’s civil war, the Arab-Israeli peace process, and the threat of nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea.

Such talk of teamwork is an incredible turn of events. In recent years, the relationship between the U.S. and Russia had sunk very low. Many experts feared that any new misunderstanding could trigger an international crisis, or worse.

Trump’s embrace of Putin could offer a chance for a “reset” of U.S.-Russia relations. But some experts say the interests of the two countries are very different. That may make it hard for the two strong-willed leaders to cooperate without eventually clashing.

Russia was once part of the Soviet Union, the massive country that was America’s rival during the Cold War (1947-1991). During that time, the two superpowers struggled for global supremacy. The Soviets and their allies were trying to spread Communism around the world. The U.S. and its allies sought to promote democracy. 

In 1962, tensions reached a high point. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the U.S. and the Soviet Union came to the brink of nuclear war. (See “Timeline: The U.S. & Russia," below.)

Over the next few decades, the fortunes of the two old foes went in different directions. As the U.S. economy grew and prospered, the Soviet Union’s weakened. In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed, breaking up into 15 independent nations. (See “Mapping the Former Soviet Union," below) Russia—the largest and most powerful of the former Soviet republics—seemed to be headed for democracy. It even looked briefly like Russia and the U.S. might become allies. 

But that was not to be. Russia had no experience with democracy. (Autocratic czars, or emperors, had ruled the nation for 350 years before the 1917 Communist revolution.) The 1990s were a decade of chaos. Prices skyrocketed and the economy crashed. Many Russians were left in poverty and disillusioned with the idea of democracy. 

Putin—who once worked for the Soviet Union’s spy agency, the KGB—came to power in 1999. He promised security and prosperity. By then, many Russians welcomed the thought of a new strongman leading them.

Russia was once part of the Soviet Union, the massive country that was America’s rival during the Cold War (1947-1991). During that time, the two superpowers struggled over which would dominate. The Soviets and their allies were trying to spread Communism around the world. The U.S. and its allies tried to spread democracy.

In 1962, tensions reached a high point. During the Cuban Missile Crisis that year, the U.S. and the Soviet Union came to the edge of nuclear war. (See “Timeline: The U.S. & Russia," below.)

Over the next few decades, the fortunes of the two old foes went in different directions. The U.S. economy grew and prospered. The Soviet Union’s ­weakened. In 1991, the Soviet Union collapsed and broke up into 15 independent nations. (See “Mapping the Former Soviet Union," below) Russia was the largest and most powerful of the former Soviet republics. It seemed to be headed for democracy. For a short time, it even seemed like Russia and the U.S. might become allies.

But that was not to be. Russia had no experience with democracy. (Autocratic czars, or emperors, had ruled the nation for 350 years before the 1917 Communist revolution.) The 1990s were a decade of chaos. Prices sky­rocketed and the economy crashed. Many Russians were left in poverty and lost faith in the idea of democracy.

Before the Soviet Union’s collapse, Putin worked for that country’s spy agency, the KGB. In 1999, he came to power in Russia, promising security and prosperity. By then, many Russians welcomed the thought of a new strongman leading them.

U.S. President Barack Obama—as well as leaders of other Western countries—responded by imposing economic sanctions, or penalties, on Russia. Those sanctions, together with the plummeting price of oil, have caused a sharp economic decline in Russia. 

The U.S. and Russia have also clashed over Syria’s civil war. The U.S. sent aid to the rebels fighting the Syrian government. That angered Putin because the Syrian regime—led by brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad—is Russia’s closest ally in the Middle East. 

In 2015, Russia sent its military to Syria, attacking the rebels and bombing civilian areas in the process. 

Russian involvement helped Assad a great deal. He has since gained the advantage in the civil war. The rebels are now on the defensive. 

U.S. President Barack Obama and leaders of other Western countries responded by imposing economic sanctions (penalties) on Russia. Those sanctions, together with the plummeting price of oil, caused a sharp economic decline in Russia.

The U.S. and Russia have also clashed over Syria’s civil war. The U.S. sent aid to the rebels fighting the Syrian government. That angered Putin because Syria’s government, led by brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad, is Russia’s closest ally in the Middle East.

In 2015, Russia sent its military to Syria. There, Russian forces attacked the rebels and bombed civilian areas. That helped Assad a great deal. He has since gained the advantage in the civil war. The rebels are now on the defensive.

Russia’s recent aggression has led many people to conclude that relations between the U.S. and Russia are worse than they’ve been in decades. Some experts worry that a miscalculation on either side could spark a military confrontation. 

“We are now in a new Cold War that is more dangerous than the preceding one,” says Stephen Cohen, a Russia scholar at Princeton University in New Jersey. 

Though President Trump has repeatedly promised to improve relations with Russia, many experts say a long-lasting partnership between the two countries is unlikely. Aside from fighting terrorism, “I’m not optimistic that the overlap of common interests with Russia is very big,” says Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia. 

Consider the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Iran nuclear threat, both cited by Trump and Putin as potential areas of cooperation. Russia is an ally of Iran and supplies weapons to that country, which is Israel’s sworn enemy. The U.S. and Trump, meanwhile, have been critical of Iran and supportive of Israel. 

Trump and Putin are also on opposite sides when it comes to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The U.S. has long been 

the leader of the 28-nation military alliance, which is dedicated to protecting the freedom of Western Europe. But Russia sees NATO as an adversary. Some experts say that Putin’s ultimate goal is to break up the NATO alliance and drive the U.S. out of Europe altogether. 

The U.S. and Russia do have common terrorist enemies, like ISIS. But American intelligence agencies are hesitant to share information with Russian officials, who are more likely to see the U.S. as a target to be spied on than an ally. 

Russia’s recent forcefulness has led many people to conclude that relations between the U.S. and Russia are worse than they have been in decades. Some experts worry that a mistake on either side could spark a military confrontation.

“We are now in a new Cold War that is more dangerous than the [one before],” says Stephen Cohen. He is a Russia scholar at Princeton University in New Jersey.

President Trump has repeatedly promised to improve relations with Russia. But many experts say that a long-lasting partnership between the two countries is unlikely. Aside from fighting terrorism, “I’m not optimistic that the overlap of common interests with Russia is very big,” says Michael McFaul, a former U.S. ambassador to Russia.

Consider the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Iran nuclear threat. Both have been mentioned by Trump and Putin as possible areas of cooperation. Iran is Israel’s sworn enemy. Russia is an ally of Iran and supplies weapons to it. The U.S. and Trump, meanwhile, have been critical of Iran and supportive of Israel.

Trump and Putin are also on opposite sides when it comes to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The U.S. has long been the leader of the 28-nation ­military alliance. NATO is dedicated to protecting the freedom of Western Europe. But Russia sees NATO as an opponent. Some experts say that Putin’s key goal is to break up the NATO alliance and drive the U.S. out of Europe altogether.

The U.S. and Russia do have common terrorist enemies, such as ISIS. But U.S. intelligence agencies are hesitant to share information with Russian officials. That is because Russia is more likely to see the U.S. as a target to be spied on than an ally.

Any plans for closer U.S.-Russia ties have become more complicated recently. American intelligence officials say that Russia tried to interfere in the 2016 U.S. presidential election in order to improve Trump’s chances of winning. (See “Did Russia Hack Our Election?” below.) 

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Congress are investigating Russia’s possible involvement and whether the Trump campaign might have worked with Russia during the election. As those inquiries continue, Trump has stopped tweeting praise for Russia. Similarly, Russia’s news media has stopped complimenting Trump. 

In what might be a sign of where the relationship is headed, Trump’s Russia adviser, Fiona Hill, has said that renewed cooperation with Russia isn’t in the cards. 

“The Russians will get giddy with expectations,” 

Hill told The Atlantic magazine last fall. “And then they’ll be dashed, like five minutes into the relationship,” she explained, “because the U.S. and Russia just have a very hard time . . . being on the same page.”

If she’s right, the friendship between Trump and Putin could be over before it really gets going.

Any plans for closer U.S.-Russia ties have become more complicated recently. American intelligence officials say that Russia tried to interfere in the 2016 U.S. presidential election to improve Trump’s chances of winning. (See “Did Russia Hack Our Election?” below.)

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and Congress are looking into Russia’s possible involvement and whether the Trump campaign might have worked with Russia during the election. As those inquiries continue, Trump has stopped tweeting praise for Russia. Similarly, Russia’s news media has stopped complimenting Trump.

Fiona Hill is Trump’s Russia adviser. In what might be a sign of where the relationship is headed, she has said that renewed cooperation with Russia is not in the cards.

“The Russians will get giddy with expectations,” Hill told The Atlantic magazine last fall. “And then they’ll be dashed, like five minutes into the relationship.” As she explained, “[That is] because the U.S. and Russia just have a very hard time . . . being on the same page.”

If Hill is right, the friendship between Trump and Putin could be over before it really gets going.